Tel aviv: The already tense relations between Israel and Trkiye took a dramatic turn earlier this week when Israel launched an attack on the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase in Syria's Idlib province. Despite the lack of casualties, the Israeli strikes managed to significantly damage the airbase's runway and storage facilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office justified the attack by claiming it prevented Trkiye from deploying troops at the base, an action they argue would disrupt the regional security balance.
According to TRTworld.com, Netanyahu has been vocal about the perceived threat posed by any Turkish military expansion southwards, warning that such actions are seen as a direct threat to Israel's security. In response, Trkiye condemned the attack, accusing Israel of undermining Syria's territorial integrity and calling for international intervention to halt Israel's aggressive actions. The United States, through its envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, joined Trkiye in condemning the attack, labeling it an unnecessary escalation that jeopardizes regional stability.
Experts suggest that Israel's aggressive stance in Syria could be a calculated political maneuver by Netanyahu, aimed at framing Trkiye as a security threat to boost his standing in the upcoming national elections. With elections scheduled for October, Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, faces a challenging political landscape, as reflected by his waning popularity in pre-election polls. Analysts warn that Israel's rhetoric and actions risk escalating tensions with Trkiye, a NATO member with significant military capabilities.
Gokhan Batu, an analyst from the Ankara-based Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, explained to TRT World that Netanyahu's attack on the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase is a transparent attempt to challenge Trkiye's regional influence. Batu highlighted the broader geopolitical shifts, with the United States showing reduced interest in acting as the sole security provider in the region, creating a vacuum that Israel seems eager to fill.
Netanyahu's aggressive regional policies have drawn criticism from political figures within Israel. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak criticized Netanyahu for escalating tensions with Trkiye, suggesting the move is politically motivated to create security concerns that could sway voters. Similarly, opposition leader Yair Golan accused Netanyahu of using military force for political gain, describing him as an extremist and unreliable.
The timing of Israel's strikes in Syria coincides with the recent Mecca Joint Defence Agreement-a pact between Trkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan focused on collective deterrence. Analysts like Batu interpret Israel's actions as a signal that it is undeterred by this agreement, despite its longstanding efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.
Trkiye's military presence in Syria has been established through a series of anti-terror operations since 2016, aimed at preventing the formation of a terror corridor and ensuring regional stability. The dynamics in Syria have shifted considerably since the 2024 revolution that ousted the Assad regime, with new governance structures gaining legitimacy and replacing the instability that Israel initially sought to exploit.
Trkiye's burgeoning military-industrial complex adds another layer of complexity to Israel's strategic calculations, with Ankara emerging as a leading producer of military drones and advancing its indigenous fighter jet capabilities. Batu notes that Trkiye's growing military prowess represents a new regional reality that Israel is unaccustomed to navigating.
Selcuk Aydin, an assistant professor at Bogazici University, underscores that Israel's anti-Trkiye rhetoric is closely tied to its election strategy. He suggests that Israel's recent actions are intended to send a message to Ankara, but points out the futility of confronting a NATO ally like Trkiye, which enjoys robust defense ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Aydin also highlights the broader geopolitical implications, noting that tensions between Trkiye and Greece are influenced by Israel's alliance with Greece, which includes Greek-administered Cyprus. Despite the heightened rhetoric, Aydin believes a full-scale security confrontation between Israel and Trkiye is unlikely.
In conclusion, analysts like Batu caution that Netanyahu's attempts to leverage security tensions for electoral gain present significant risks. Given Trkiye's formidable military capabilities, what started as an electoral strategy could backfire, leading to unintended political consequences for Netanyahu.
